Group Press Releases
Aegis Predicts Improving Global Advertising Market in 2004
09 March 2004
Aegis Predicts Improving Global Advertising Market in 2004
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
|
| Global | +3.4% |
+5.3% |
+4.4% |
| USA | +3.3% |
+5.3% |
+3.8% |
| Europe | +2.3% |
+4.0% |
+4.2% |
| Asia-Pacific | +4.4% |
+6.1% |
+5.7% |
Aegis Group plc ("Aegis" or "Group") - the media communications and market research group - today releases 2004 adspend forecast. Doug Flynn, CEO of Aegis plc, commentating on the forecast said:
"As we enter 2004 we believe that the advertising recession, which ended in the US and Asia-Pacific in 2003, is largely over in Europe, although Germany and France are set to recover at a slower rate. Clients are now indicating their intention to invest in top line growth on the back of rising corporate confidence. In 2004 advertising growth is being driven both by the ‘Quadrennial Effect’ of the US election, the Olympics and the European soccer championships - predicted to add 0.9% to global adspend - and the stimulus provided by low interest rates and loose fiscal policy settings in the US. Fiscal policies for Europe and Japan are also contributing to economic stimulus.
Our 2004 predictions are based on what brand owners tell us they intend to spend and consequently we predict that in 2004 global adspend should rise by 5.3% (2003: 3.4%). The US market is anticipated to grow by 5.3% (2003: 3.3%) and Europe is forecast to return to real growth with adspend rising by 4.0% (2003: 2.3%). Asia-Pacific is the region expected to grow most strongly with adspend up by 6.1% (2003: 4.4%).
Looking beyond 2004 to 2005, econometric data suggests that the outlook for global adspend remains bright. Federal Reserve actions to tighten monetary policy appear to be on hold until after the US election in November 2004 and higher US interest rates are likely from that point onwards. Using econometric data alone it is difficult to predict precisely what affect this will have on global adspend. However, the absence of the Quadrennial Effect, the impact of higher interest rates and the possibility of tighter fiscal policy in the US lead us to believe that global adspend growth in 2005 will be slightly lower than the rate achieved in 2004."
For further information contact:
Richard Walters
Aegis Group plc
+44 (0) 20 7070 7700
Charles Palmer
Financial Dynamics
+44 (0) 20 7831 3113
